Run-off elections in Peru

I'm in Lima, Peru for two weeks of reconaissance for an upcoming trade-related project. I was considering flying to Cusco for two days to see the Sacred Valley, the location of many Inca ruins and the setting off point for Machu Picchu--THE most famous place in Peru and arguably all of South America--butI wouldn't have had time to actually make it there. Instead, I'm hoping to explore Lima a bit and am holding out hope for a future trip on which I can hike the Inca trail.

Another reason for not flying to Cuzco this weekend is the run-off election taking place this Sunday between Ollanta Humala and Alan Garcia. It is highly fraught--with Humala crying that if he loses it will be the result of fraud, and some expectations that hired guns will try to make trouble in the streets. In addition, there has been some actual trouble in Cuzco in recent weeks (not clear if it was orchestrated or not) and people were shot.

Even though my last few days have been filled with discussions of the various positions and political manuvering of the candidates, as anyone familar with Peruvian politics is well aware, that doesn't mean I actually understand what is going on or can possibly predict what will happen on Sunday. This site at least tracks the news pretty well (http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/)--it's not all in Spanish either.

The major implications for my work here is that if Humala wins he has pledged to withdraw from the US-Peru FTA process altogether. This could mean cancellation, or at least revision of what we expect to be working on. Garcia is a bit friendlier to US interests--and has a platform that people can understand--so a win for him seems for many people to be the better of two bad choices.

In terms of Lima though, it has a wonderful familiarity to me after my months in Quito, with its mix of parks, colonial buildings, and the Latin American-style walls with intricate wood or metal grates snug up against the sidewalks. It is also human sized, in contrast to mega cities like Jakarta, with buildings in most of the city not much higher than 8 stories and neat and tidy streets filled with cars--both parked and driving. Against the odds of the "garua" season we're in, where a misty microclimate hangs over the city, today was also bright and shiny with a wonderful cool breeze, especially near the huge coast line.